Illustrative path, not historical prices or a forecast. Intermediate values use assumed progress toward the selected outcome; no actual fund shares are trading. After assumed costs, before tax.
How this simulation works+
Uses the proposed allocation above as a simplified equal-stake illustration, not a backtest of the proposed algorithmic betting system. The planned strategy would vary stakes by game; this illustration does not model that sizing or any performance improvement from it. For calculation purposes only, each game-day budget is divided equally across all games and spent once; proceeds are not reinvested. Every moneyline contract is assumed to cost 60¢, and every spread contract 52¢. These are invented scenario prices, not current market quotes. A winning binary contract pays $1; a losing contract pays $0. At these fixed prices, each game-day allocation ends at its starting value × win or cover rate ÷ contract price.
The futures allocation buys championship-winning contracts at 7¢ and exits at 100¢ per contract, for a value multiplier of 14.29× before costs. The Finals run scenario assumes buying at 7¢ and selling the entire position at 40¢ when the Knicks reach the Finals; proceeds are held without further return through season end. These are illustrative prices, not verified current odds or an assured Finals price. A sale requires buyers at the assumed price; displayed probabilities are not guaranteed cash-out prices. The Championship scenario instead holds to a $1 winning settlement, while Strong season assumes a 12¢ sale. Sale proceeds and settlement payouts are alternatives, never added together. Stock and collectible values use the selected percentage changes. Cash earns the selected season return; no community-vote spending is modeled. Collectible values are assumed marks, not guaranteed sale proceeds.
The costs input deducts 2% of starting capital (limited to remaining assets) for a simplified combined allowance covering trading fees, spreads, management, storage and other expenses. It is not a quoted fee schedule. Taxes, variable game prices, pushes, cancellations, unavailable contracts, whole-contract rounding and execution constraints are not modeled. A $1 unit scales a larger hypothetical portfolio; it is not a claim that these positions can be bought for $1. The preset scenarios deliberately illustrate upside only, have no assigned probabilities and are not expected returns. Custom inputs can produce losses; no minimum return is enforced. The line assumes 0%, 15%, 35%, 60%, 80%, 95% and 100% progress in non-futures gains and costs. Futures marks use 0%, 5%, 15%, 30%, 55%, 80% and 100% progress, except a 40¢ exit uses 65% at playoffs and 100% at Finals, with proceeds then held in cash. These paths are illustrative assumptions, not a game-by-game or market-data simulation.
Selling before settlement ↗